SECRETARY OF STATE ANNOUNCES GENERAL ELECTION VOTER TURNOUT PREDICTION
Friday, November 4, 2022
TOPEKA – Today, Secretary of State Scott Schwab announced the voter turnout prediction for the November 8 general election. Secretary Schwab predicts roughly 53 percent of Kansas voters will participate in the 2022 general election.
The prediction is based on several factors including historical turnout data, advance voting data, the number of registered voters in Kansas, competitive races driving turnout, and 2018 data due to similar races on the ballot.
Historical Turnout Data – In 2020, roughly 1,372,303, or 70.9 percent, of registered voters participated in the general election. In 2018, roughly 1,054,622 or 56.4 percent, of registered voters participated in the general election.
Advance by Mail Voting Data – As of today, 154,925 advance by mail ballots have been sent to Kansas voters who applied for a ballot. Comparatively, 507,405 advance by mail ballots were mailed during the same period in the 2020 general election, and 193,627 advance by mail ballots were mailed during the 2018 general election. To date, 91,544 advance by mail ballots have been returned to county election offices, compared to 371,012 in the 2020 general election and 122,089 in the 2018 general election. The party affiliation of the returned 2022 advance by mail ballots are as follows: 44,387 Democrat, 35,424 Republican, 317 Libertarian, and 11,415 unaffiliated.
Advance In-Person Voting Data – As of today, 191,140 advance in-person votes have been cast. Of those, 66,304 were by registered Democrats, 102,288 by registered Republicans, 905 by registered Libertarians, and 21,643 by registered unaffiliated voters. For the 2020 general election, 271,712 advance in-person ballots were cast. For the 2018 general election, 180,703 advance in-person ballots were cast.
Registered Kansas Voters – Unofficial numbers report there are approximately 1,975,535 registered Kansas voters. Of those, 523,317 are registered with the Democratic Party, 883,988 are registered with the Republican Party, 24,230 are registered Libertarians, and 544,000 are unaffiliated with a political party.
“There are many important races on the ballot this election, including two constitutional amendments,” said Schwab. “For those who have yet to cast their ballot, come prepared, as Kansas law requires a government-issued photo ID to vote.”